I've been pricing reconstruction for almost two decades. What I'm watching happen to Iran's infrastructure is a multitrillion dollar rebuilding job and China and Russia are about to win every contract. Last night cooler heads got us a ceasefire, which brings us one step closer to peace. Here's where the money flows after the war ends.
Belt and Road was already inside Iran before the first bomb dropped. A destroyed Iran is more useful to Beijing than a functioning one. War makes Iran more dependent, indebted, and locked in for a decade of spending. Russia brings the energy expertise and the sanctions workarounds. Together, Russia and China end up owning Iran like a satellite state.
The rest of the Middle East is a different story. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE absorbed billions in damage but they're not calling Beijing to fix it. That reconstruction bill gets paid in dollars and the contracts go to firms with the relationships, the bonding capacity, and the track record to deliver at that scale.
Europe contributed nothing to this war and they're about to find out what that costs them. The reconstruction contracts they should be winning are going to American and Asian firms. Germany rebuilt its industrial model around cheap energy that no longer exists and they don't even have a seat at the table.
I'm making a list of American firms that are positioned to win Gulf reconstruction contracts. These are companies with the history, the regional relationships, and capacity to operate at scale. That's the next Breaking Metrics project. While American contractors eye a Saudi power plant, some Russian oligarch is already pricing out a ski chalet in the Alborz mountains while his firm bids the Iran contract. I wish I was joking, but that's how this works. https://breakingmetrics.substack.com
