Markets don't print all time highs when the Navy is losing a war. The S&P drew down 9% during the full Iranian closure, barely scratching correction territory, and closed Friday above 7,000 after the Navy blockaded Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf. Iran re-routed ships around Larak this morning trying to reclaim leverage. The market already stress-tested this thesis and priced the answer. Here's what smart money saw while everyone else argued over Iranian AI slop.
$58 billion in damaged Middle East energy infrastructure. Europe six weeks from jet fuel cancellations. Gasoline up 13% in a month. The IEA is calling it the biggest energy crisis the continent has ever faced. For the US? Record oil exports and roughly $1.4 Trillion slated for AI infrastructure. If you're making a bet on what 2027 looks like, you're betting on a booming economy and that's exactly what the markets just told us.
The US is securing its position as the dominant global energy hegemon. From Venezuela to Greenland to Iran, the US is giving China and Russia a gentle reminder that oil and natural gas don't move without US approval. AI data centers aren't built with hopes and dreams.
I wrote about what the market is actually pricing, why a 9% drawdown and all-time highs during a blockade aren't a mistake, and where the money flows from here. New brief on Breaking Metrics: Magic 8 Ball https://open.substack.com/pub/breakingmetrics/p/magic-8-ball
